Bayesian Meta-Analysis

Function for fitting normal-likelihood/effect-size random-effects, meta-regression, multilevel, and location-scale meta-analytic models. brma.norm() is an alias for brma(); raw-count GLMM models use brma.glmm().

Usage

brma(
  yi,
  vi,
  sei,
  weights,
  ni,
  mods,
  scale,
  cluster,
  data,
  slab,
  subset,
  measure,
  prior_effect,
  prior_heterogeneity,
  prior_mods,
  prior_scale,
  prior_heterogeneity_allocation,
  standardize_continuous_predictors = TRUE,
  set_contrast_factor_predictors = "treatment",
  prior_unit_information_sd,
  rescale_priors = 1,
  prior_informed_field,
  prior_informed_subfield,
  sample = 5000,
  burnin = 2000,
  adapt = 500,
  chains = 3,
  thin = 1,
  parallel = FALSE,
  autofit = FALSE,
  autofit_control = set_autofit_control(),
  convergence_checks = set_convergence_checks(),
  seed = NULL,
  silent,
  ...
)

Arguments

yi: a vector of effect sizes, or a formula with the effect size on the left-hand side and location moderators on the right-hand side (for example yi ~ x1 + x2). If a formula is supplied, mods must not be specified.
vi: a vector of sampling variances. Either vi or sei must be supplied for normal models.
sei: a vector of standard errors. Either vi or sei must be supplied for normal models.
weights: an optional vector of positive likelihood weights. For normal/effect-size models, each weight powers the estimate likelihood. For constructors with GLMM raw-count input, each weight powers the paired two-arm likelihood for one study.
ni: an optional vector of sample sizes. Used for measure = "GEN" or when estimating "UISD").
mods: an optional matrix, data.frame, or formula specifying location moderators (meta-regressors). Formula input is evaluated in data.
scale: an optional matrix, data.frame, or formula specifying scale predictors for location-scale models. Formula input is evaluated in data.
cluster: an optional vector of cluster identifiers for multilevel meta-analysis.
data: an optional data frame containing the variables.
slab: an optional vector of study labels.
subset: an optional logical or numeric vector specifying a subset of data to be used.
measure: a character string specifying the effect size measure. Normal/effect-size constructors require an explicit value and support "SMD", "ZCOR", "RR", "OR", "HR", "RD", "IRR", and "GEN". Use "GEN" only for general effect sizes without a known unit information standard deviation. GLMM raw-count constructors support only "OR" and "IRR" and default to "OR".
prior_effect: prior distribution for the effect size (\(\mu\)) parameter (the intercept). If omitted, a default prior is constructed. In single-model functions, explicit NULL or FALSE sets a spike at zero.
prior_heterogeneity: prior distribution for the heterogeneity (\(\tau\)) parameter. If omitted, a default prior is constructed. In single-model functions, explicit NULL or FALSE sets a spike at zero.
prior_mods: prior distribution for the moderators (\(\beta\)) parameters. A single prior applies to all terms; a named list can specify term-specific priors. If omitted or NULL, default priors are used.
prior_scale: prior distribution for the scale (\(\delta\)) parameters. A single prior applies to all terms; a named list can specify term-specific priors. If omitted or NULL, default priors are used.
prior_heterogeneity_allocation: prior distribution for the fraction of heterogeneity allocated to the cluster-level component in multilevel models (\(\rho\)). If omitted or NULL, defaults to Beta(1, 1).
standardize_continuous_predictors: logical. Whether to standardize continuous predictors. Defaults to TRUE.
set_contrast_factor_predictors: character. How to set contrast for factor predictors. Defaults are constructor-specific and shown in each function usage; single-model constructors use "treatment", while model-averaging constructors use "meandif".
prior_unit_information_sd: numeric. The unit information standard deviation (\(\sigma_{unit}\)). Cannot be used together with prior_informed_field.
rescale_priors: numeric. A scaling factor for supported prior distributions. Point and none priors are unchanged. For constructors with publication-bias prior distributions, rescale_priors does not rescale them except for the default PEESE prior's UISD adjustment. Defaults to 1.
prior_informed_field: character. The field of the informed prior distributions. Omit to use the standard default prior specification; explicit NULL is invalid.
prior_informed_subfield: character. The subfield of the informed prior distributions. Omit to use the field-specific default, such as "Cochrane" for prior_informed_field = "medicine"; explicit NULL is invalid.
sample: numeric. Number of MCMC samples to save. Defaults to 5000.
burnin: numeric. Number of burn-in iterations. Defaults to 2000.
adapt: numeric. Number of adaptation iterations. Defaults to 500.
chains: numeric. Number of MCMC chains. Defaults to 3.
thin: numeric. Thinning interval. Defaults to 1.
parallel: logical. Whether to run MCMC chains in parallel. Defaults to FALSE.
autofit: logical. Whether to automatically extend the MCMC chains if convergence is not met. Defaults to FALSE.
autofit_control: list of autofit control settings. See set_autofit_control() for details.
convergence_checks: list of convergence check settings. See set_convergence_checks() for details.
seed: numeric. Random seed for reproducibility. Defaults to NULL.
silent: logical. Whether to suppress output. Constructors with no explicit default use RoBMA.get_option("silent") when silent is omitted. Model-averaging wrappers default to TRUE unless explicitly changed.
...: additional advanced arguments. Fitting functions reject unused arguments; currently recognized internal arguments include only_data, only_priors, is_JASP, and is_JASP_prefix.

Value

A fitted object of class c("brma.norm", "brma"). The object contains checked data, checked priors, the JAGS fit, cached summary, and cached coefficients. If the corresponding package options are enabled, it can also contain cached LOO, WAIC, or marginal likelihood results. The advanced internal only_data = TRUE and only_priors = TRUE paths return partially constructed objects.

Details

Prior distributions

Prior distributions must be specified for all model parameters. This typically includes the pooled effect \(\mu\) and between-study heterogeneity \(\tau\). In the case of meta-regression, the pooled effect \(\mu\) corresponds to the intercept, and additional prior distributions for the regression coefficients are required. In the case of a location-scale model, the between-study heterogeneity corresponds to the intercept of the scale regression, and additional prior distributions for the scale regression coefficients are required.

There are several ways to specify the prior distributions:

via a standardized effect size measure with known unit information standard deviation,
by estimating unit information standard deviation using sample sizes ni,
by manually setting prior_unit_information_sd,
by specifying informed empirical prior distributions via prior_informed_field and prior_informed_subfield,
or via fully custom specification using the prior_effect, prior_heterogeneity, prior_mods, prior_scale, and prior_heterogeneity_allocation arguments.

In all cases, the prior behavior can be further modified by the rescale_priors, standardize_continuous_predictors, and set_contrast_factor_predictors arguments.

(1) Specifying prior distributions via standardized effect size measures with known

unit information standard deviation This is the easiest way to specify prior distributions. The width of prior distributions is based on a fraction of the known unit information standard deviation (UISD) (Röver et al. 2021) . The default prior distributions for the parameters are set as follows:

effect size:	Normal(0, \(\frac{1}{2}\) `UISD`)
heterogeneity:	Normal+(0, \(\frac{1}{4}\) `UISD`)
effect moderation:	Normal(0, \(\frac{1}{4}\) `UISD`)
heterogeneity moderation:	Normal(0, \(\frac{1}{2}\))

The heterogeneity moderation parameters are multiplicative, as such they are independent of UISD.

The default fraction of the UISD can be changed via RoBMA.options() using one of the following arguments: "default_UISD.effect", "default_UISD.heterogeneity", "default_UISD.mods", "default_UISD.scale".

The known UISD for standardized effect size measures (measure) are set as follows:

`"SMD"`:	\(\sqrt{2}\)
`"ZCOR"`:	\(1\)
`"RR"`:	\(\sqrt{4}\)
`"OR"`:	\(\sqrt{4}\)
`"HR"`:	\(\sqrt{4}\)
`"IRR"`:	\(\sqrt{4}\)

See Chapter 2.4 in Spiegelhalter et al. (2004) and Chapter 1 in Grieve (2022) .

(2) Estimating unit information standard deviation using sample sizes

When effect sizes are on a non-standardized scale (measure = "GEN") or use a standardized effect size without known UISD, the UISD can be estimated from sample sizes (ni) and standard errors (sei) following Equation 6 in Röver et al. (2021) . The estimated UISD is then used to scale the default prior distributions as described in section (1).

Note that the known UISD for standardized effect size measures (section (1)) is used if available, even when ni is provided.

(3) Manually setting unit information standard deviation

Alternatively, the UISD can be specified directly via the prior_unit_information_sd argument. This is useful when the appropriate scale for prior distributions is known a priori or when multiple analyses are to be performed on subsets of the same data (re-estimating UISD on different subsets of the data can lead to slightly different prior distributions for different subsets; see estimate_unit_information_sd()). The specified prior_unit_information_sd is then used to scale the default prior distributions as described in section (1).

Note that the manually specified prior_unit_information_sd takes precedence over the estimated UISD from ni (section (2)) and the known UISD from measure (section (1)). It cannot be combined with prior_informed_field.

(4) Specifying informed empirical prior distributions

Informed prior distributions can be specified via the prior_informed_field and prior_informed_subfield arguments. Currently, only prior_informed_field = "medicine" with subfields defined in BayesTools::prior_informed_medicine_names is supported, which uses empirically derived prior distributions from medical meta-analyses as described in Bartoš et al. (2021) and Bartoš et al. (2023) .

When prior_informed_field = "medicine", the default prior_informed_subfield is "Cochrane" (i.e., using the whole CDSR database as a reference). The informed prior distributions are available for the following effect size measures:

`"SMD"`:	standardized mean difference
`"OR"`:	log odds ratio
`"RR"`:	log risk ratio
`"RD"`:	risk difference
`"HR"`:	log hazard ratio

Note that informed prior distributions are only available for the effect size (\(\mu\)) and heterogeneity (\(\tau\)) parameters. For effect moderation (prior_mods), the informed effect prior is scaled by a factor of RoBMA.get_option("default_informed_priors.mods"). For heterogeneity moderation (prior_scale), a normal prior with standard deviation specified by RoBMA.get_option("default_informed_priors.scale") is used.

(5) Fully custom prior distributions

Prior distributions can be fully customized by directly specifying the prior_effect, prior_heterogeneity, prior_mods, prior_scale, and prior_heterogeneity_allocation arguments. These should be prior distribution objects created via BayesTools::prior() or related functions (e.g., prior_factor()).

Rescaling prior distributions

The rescale_priors argument allows rescaling supported prior distributions by a multiplicative factor. For example, rescale_priors = 2 doubles the standard deviations/scales of normal, Cauchy, t, and inverse-gamma prior distributions, making them more diffuse. Point and none priors are unchanged.

Handling of continuous and factor predictors

When standardize_continuous_predictors = TRUE, continuous moderator and scale predictors are internally standardized before fitting. Reported summaries are transformed back to the original predictor scale by default; use standardized_coefficients = TRUE in summary() or related methods to inspect coefficients on the standardized scale.

Factor predictors use the contrast specified by set_contrast_factor_predictors. The default "treatment" follows standard treatment coding. Model-averaging functions default to "meandif" so inclusion priors for factor levels are centered on deviations from the grand mean.

References

Bartoš F, Gronau QF, Timmers B, Otte WM, Ly A, Wagenmakers E (2021). “Bayesian model-averaged meta-analysis in medicine.” Statistics in Medicine, 40(30), 6743–6761. doi:10.1002/sim.9170 .

Bartoš F, Otte WM, Gronau QF, Timmers B, Ly A, Wagenmakers E (2023). “Empirical prior distributions for Bayesian meta-analyses of binary and time-to-event outcomes.” doi:10.48550/arXiv.2306.11468 . Preprint available at https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2306.11468.

Grieve AP (2022). Hybrid frequentist/Bayesian power and Bayesian power in planning clinical trials. Chapman and Hall/CRC.

Röver C, Bender R, Dias S, Schmid CH, Schmidli H, Sturtz S, Weber S, Friede T (2021). “On weakly informative prior distributions for the heterogeneity parameter in Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis.” Research Synthesis Methods, 12(4), 448–474. doi:10.1002/jrsm.1475 .

Spiegelhalter DJ, Abrams KR, Myles JP (2004). Bayesian approaches to clinical trials and health-care evaluation. John Wiley and Sons. doi:10.1002/0470092602 .

Examples

if (FALSE) { # \dontrun{
if (requireNamespace("metadat", quietly = TRUE) &&
    requireNamespace("metafor", quietly = TRUE)) {
  data(dat.bcg, package = "metadat")
  dat <- metafor::escalc(
    measure = "RR",
    ai      = tpos,
    bi      = tneg,
    ci      = cpos,
    di      = cneg,
    data    = dat.bcg
  )

  fit <- brma(
    yi      = yi,
    vi      = vi,
    mods    = ~ ablat + year,
    data    = dat,
    measure = "RR",
    seed    = 1,
    silent  = TRUE
  )

  summary(fit)
  predict(fit, type = "terms")
}
} # }